#17 K-State (5-1, 3-0) got a much-needed bye after quite a few players were dinged up during their 10-9 road win against Iowa State a couple weeks ago. Now, they will take on #8 TCU (6-0, 3-0) in their most important game to date in a battle between the two remaining unbeaten teams in Big 12 play.

The winner will control their own destiny in getting to play in the Big 12 Championship game, and the loser will fall to the pack and have to claw their way to get there.

The Wildcats’ nine points allowed against the Cyclones were the fewest allowed in a conference game since 2018 (vs. Texas Tech) and the fewest on the road since 2016 (at TCU).

K-State’s defense has been successful in many areas, but in the end, they aren’t giving up many points. So far this season they have held all their opponents below their scoring average.

If you want to go into more depth about the lynch mob statistically, their third down conversion rate is just 29.1% which is 12th in the nation and second in the conference.

This is because of the defensive line’s ability to create tackles for loss. K-State has 41 TFLs which ranks 20th nationally at 6.8 per game. This includes 16 sacks which ranks 27th in the country.

They are led by junior defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah who is playing at an All-American level as he ties for the nation’s lead in sacks with 6.5. Last year, King Felix had six sacks in their win against TCU until the NCAA declassified two of them.

As for the offense, to the naked eye, their last game versus Iowa State seems like a poor offensive output for the Cats. However, K-State got the most rushing yards (131) and the most passing yards (257) against Iowa State’s defense at that point in the season.

Looking at the Horned Frogs’ impressive 2022 campaign so far, first year head coach Sonny Dykes seems to have quickly turned the program right back to prominence after a brief hiatus in mediocrity.

Last week, they overcame a 24-7 deficit against a then #8 Oklahoma State team to win 43-40 in double overtime. This Saturday will be the fourth consecutive game against a ranked opponent for TCU.

Quarterback Max Duggan has stepped up in a big way this season. He was listed as the team’s backup going into their opening game behind redshirt freshman Chandler Morris. Morris got hurt in the first game and Duggan has played with a huge chip on his shoulder all year long after everyone counted him out.

Duggan has 1,591 passing yards and 16 passing touchdowns (first in the Big 12) along with 261 rushing yards (third among Big 12 QBs) and four rushing touchdowns this year.

They also have a solid duo at running back with Kendre Miller leading the team in rushing with 578 yards (96.3 yards per game), which is fourth in the conference, and eight rushing touchdowns (third in the conference). Emari Demercado is one of the better backups in the Big 12. He has 246 yards on the ground and four rushing touchdowns.

A big reason for why the ground game has so much success and why Duggan has so much time in the pocket is because of left tackle Steve Avila. Avila received Midseason All-America honors from ESPN for his stellar play so far this season. The senior was also selected to the All-Big 12 Team last year.

Watch to watch for (in the SportsCenter voiceover Chris Kelley’s voice) is the matchup of Avila and whoever he has to block which might be Anudike-Uzomah who feasted against them last season. This could possibly be a big Khalid Duke or Nate Matlack game on the other side of the line.

The Horned Frogs also have arguably the best wide receiver trio in the conference with Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis and Taye Barber.

Johnston was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week two weeks ago in their win at Kansas where he had 14 receptions, 206 receiving yards and the game-winning touchdown. Last week, the 6-foot-4-inch junior followed that up with eight receptions, 180 yards and a touchdown. Before the KU game, he hadn’t reached 50 yards in a single game.

Those two big games have propelled him to second in the Big 12 in receiving yards (500). Johnston was on the Big 12 Preseason All-Conference Team.

Davis and Barber can’t be counted out when it comes to trying to shut down their receiving game. They have a combined 486 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

The offensive unit is averaging 7.7 yards per play which is second in the entire nation. They also rank third in both scoring offense at 45.8 points per game and total offense with 526.7 yards per game.

TCU’s defense has some solid players including Dee Winters on the line, who has seven tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. He also has five quarterback hurries and a fumble recovery.

In the secondary, throwing in the direction of Josh Newton would be a mistake. He leads the team with a pair of interceptions and four pass breakups. He can also make tackles in the open field as he has two tackles for loss so far this season.

Prediction: In a do-or-die game, it’s all going to be about executing their gameplans. I think TCU will be riding high after their top ten victory last week against OSU. K-State had an extra week to prepare for this one and they know how badly they need this win.

If K-State loses, they then have to rattle off at last three victories in their four-game stretch at home against Oklahoma State, at home against Texas, at Baylor and at West Viriginia to stay in the Big 12 hunt. I think they will play with more fire than the Horned Frogs will this weekend.

TCU is the 3.5-point favorites at the time this article was written. Chris Klieman is 7-0 against the spread following a win of seven points or fewer over a Big 12 foe. I am currently 5-1 ATS when picking K-State games this season, but I’m just 3-3 picking the straight up results.

Also, the over/under is surprisingly low at 54. Nine of the last 13 games for K-State have been under the total, but I think this game will be different. If I were to put money on this one, I would pick K-State at the moneyline since they are getting points, and I am hammering the over on this one as well.

K-State 37, TCU 31